The Health Impacts Model Core extends the impact of Shake, Rattle and Roll and Stroke in the Young by using data gathered from these studies to estimate the impacts on national stroke rates and stroke disparities if new methodologies were adopted. It uses the Cardiovascular Policy Model, an established and validated computer simulation of cardiovascular disease and stroke.
Update: We developed Cardiovascular Disease Policy Models representing adults in the non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black populations in the United States. We have used these models on several projects including an evaluation of trends in the rate of stroke mortality from 1999 to 2012, when age-adjusted rates declined for both whites and blacks but remained higher for blacks. We also evaluated the cost effectiveness of treating hypertension according to recent guidelines, finding cost effectiveness extends to younger age groups and a larger portion of the population in blacks compared to whites. We are embarking on a national scale-up analysis of the Shake, Rattle, and Roll trial with a particular focus on the role of treatment intensification and physician visit frequency in achieving blood pressure control and downstream effects on cardiovascular disease and death. We are also extending this work using microsimulation modeling approaches in collaboration with researchers at New York University, who have implemented a home blood pressure monitoring intervention under the same grant mechanism that funded the work through Kaiser and UCSF.
Computer simulations are useful for researchers and policymakers to translate the results of scientific studies and better assess the impact of findings on the health of populations.
The CVD Policy Model has a long history of projecting the impacts of clinical and public health interventions, as well as the role of demographic trends in cardiovascular disease and stroke risk factors.
The model has been adapted to describe cardiovascular disease and stroke epidemiology in racial and ethnic minority subpopulations in the United States (African American and Mexican American) and those of low socioeconomic status; a submodel describes trends among youth and young adults.
Clay Johnston, MD, PhD